Coffee growers in Kodagu (Coorg) district are staring at a third consecutive below-average harvest, with early estimates from the Coffee Board of India suggesting the 2026 crop could be 18–22% lower than the ten-year average.

A combination of erratic weather during the critical flowering period in January and an unusually dry February — when consistent moisture is essential for cherry development — has damaged yields across both arabica and robusta plantations.

The Weather Factor

“Coffee flowering requires a precise combination of dry stress followed by a triggering rain,” explained a Coffee Board agronomist. “This year, the triggering rains came too early in some estates and didn’t come at all in others. The result is uneven and low berry set.”

February, which historically sees moderate showers in Coorg, recorded less than 40% of its average rainfall this year, leading to premature drop of developing cherries on many estates.

Economic Impact

Kodagu accounts for roughly 30% of Karnataka’s total coffee production and is home to over 25,000 coffee-growing families. A significant drop in yield, combined with volatile international coffee prices, is putting pressure on small and medium growers who are already servicing loans taken during the lean years of 2024 and 2025.

“We haven’t had a good year since 2022,” said an estate owner near Madikeri. “The loans don’t care about the weather.”

Larger Estates vs. Small Growers

Larger estates, many of which have installed micro-irrigation systems, have fared somewhat better than smallholder growers who rely entirely on monsoon patterns. This divergence is widening a gap in resilience between large commercial operations and family-run holdings of under five acres.

The Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha has demanded a crop insurance payout for affected growers and a moratorium on agricultural loan repayments until after the 2026 harvest.